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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."